One truism of American politics, often touted by governors on the campaign trail, is that state governments have to get stuff done. Thanks to the requirements that they balance their budgets each year, governors and state legislatures are forced to work across the aisle.
Unfortunately, the gridlock that has seized our divided federal government has seeped down to state capitals, which are finding it increasingly difficult to find common ground. Pennsylvania and Illinois are the two most egregious examples of the failure of state lawmakers to reach a deal. Louisiana, facing its own deep fiscal crisis, has been a hopeful counterpoint.
Pennsylvania and Illinois present bizzaro versions of one another with the same frustrating outcome – deadlock. Illinois voters elected Republican businessman Bruce Rauner governor in 2014. They also elected a Democratic majority to both houses of the Illinois General Assembly. Meanwhile, Pennsylvania voters elected Democratic businessman Tom Wolf governor in the same year and returned Republican majorities to both houses of the Pennsylvania General Assembly.
The path to crisis was similar in both states. Years of underfunded pensions and irresponsible tax cuts – including the rollback of a temporary income tax rate increase last year – left Illinois with a $6 billion budget gap at the beginning of 2015. Lawmakers have already cut over $2 billion in state services, but Illinois faces billions more in cuts if it doesn’t raise new revenue. So far, Rauner has refused to consider tax cuts unless legislators consider big-ticket items on his agenda: reforming worker’s compensation, freezing property taxes, term limits, and weakened collective bargaining. The legislature is not biting.
In Pennsylvania, revenue growth has lagged state spending for many years, in part due to unwise business tax cuts over the past five years. The danger for Pennsylvania is somewhat lower than for Illinois, though $2 billion in possible budget cuts still loom. Wolf wants to increase the state’s personal income tax rate or increase and expand the state’s sales tax to make up the shortfall and protect investments in education and human services, while legislators want budget cuts instead of tax increases.
In both states, lawmakers have long used accounting gimmicks, transfers from dedicated funding sources (such as for roads and schools), and other short-term fixes to stave off the day of reckoning. And both states have somehow found a way to bicker for months past the constitutionally prescribed date for a budget agreement. The unprecedented stalemates in Illinois and Pennsylvania over the budgets for FY 2016 have gone on for so long that both governors have already presented budgets for FY 2017. So far, no resolution is in sight for either state.
Louisiana offers hope for the efficacy of divided government. Voters there elected Democrat John Bel Edwards governor in 2015 while the General Assembly remains in Republican control.
Edwards inherited a massive budget shortfall from outgoing Gov. Bobby Jindal, whose mix of big tax cuts and clever accounting measures left the state treasury in ruins. Louisiana faced a $954 million shortfall for FY 2016 and a $2 billion gap for FY 2017. Legislators initially resisted calls for new revenue from the new governor, but they were outmaneuvered when Edwards highlighted what impact their deep cuts would have (the threat to LSU football was too steep a price to pay for many voters).
In the end, lawmakers approved a temporary increase in the state’s sales tax rate, from 4 percent to 5 percent, and removed many sales tax exemptions. They also approved increases in taxes on cigarettes and alcohol, and extended or reinstated taxes on vehicle rentals, cellphones, and landlines. Both chambers of the legislature also approved a measure designed to improve enforcement of sales taxes on online shopping, but the budgetary impact of that measure is yet to be determined.
Ultimately, Edwards and legislators were able to come to an agreement that raised all but $30 million of the revenue needed to cover the gap in FY 2016. Despite this, their effort was neither perfect nor comprehensive. The consumption tax hikes approved by lawmakers will worsen the unfairness of a state tax system that already heavily impacts the poor. And lawmakers will still need to come up with another $800 million to close the FY 2017 shortfall. But compared to the infighting in Pennsylvania and Illinois, the compromise is remarkable.
Wendy’s: Where’s the tax payments?
Thanks for reading the State Rundown! Here’s a sneak peek: The Arizona House adopts an optional flat tax experiment for low-income residents. An Indiana Senate committee approves a transportation bill after removing a gas tax increase and income tax cut. Convoluted sales tax changes go into effect in North Carolina.
Throughout her career, Clinton has pursued incremental changes that would significantly improve the fairness of the tax code. As a candidate, Clinton has proposed a series of progressive revenue-raisers, including estate tax reform, enacting a surcharge on multimillionaires and limiting the value of itemized deductions. In addition, she has proposed a variety of tax breaks (to be offset by the aforementioned tax increases) to address issues ranging from incentivizing companies to engage in profit sharing to helping individuals pay for the expense of taking care of a loved one.
Sanders has a long record of championing tax fairness through his many progressive legislative proposals, such as his bill to end offshore tax dodging and another to substantially reform the estate tax. During the campaign, Sanders has proposed more than $13 trillion in mostly progressive tax increases to fund his expansive agenda: moving to a single-payer healthcare system, increasing infrastructure spending and expanding access to college education.
Though he has not held any elected office, Ben Carson has used his position as a public figure to advocate for a flat income tax system based on the biblical tithe of 10 percent. As a candidate, he has proposed a 15 percent flat income tax – but in truth, the income tax rate would be 30.2 percent for many since his plan retains payroll taxes. A CTJ analysis finds Carson’s plan would cost $9.6 trillion in revenue over 10 years, actually increase taxes on the bottom 50 percent of Americans and provide the top 1 percent with two-thirds of the overall tax break.
Ted Cruz has made a name for himself as one of the most radical anti-tax lawmakers in the country by calling for the abolition of the IRS and for a move to an extremely regressive flat tax system. A CTJ analysis of Cruz’s tax reform plan found that his plan was the most costly, losing $16.2 trillion over 10 years. Even that number assumes he doesn’t eliminate tax collection altogether by following through on his call to eliminate the IRS.
While John Kasich has sought to portray himself as the moderate choice in the GOP race, his record as governor of Ohio is very conservative on tax issues. Kasich relentlessly pushed for largely regressive tax cut and reform measures. Unfortunately, Kasich has not specified his tax reform agenda in enough detail for CTJ to analyze, but what he has released indicates that his plan would follow the pattern of other candidates in cutting taxes by trillions of dollars, mostly for the rich.
Rubio has sought to set himself apart from other candidates by highlighting his proposals to replace the standard deduction with a refundable tax credit and to adopt a more robust refundable child tax credit. While this effort is commendable, CTJ’s analysis of Rubio’s plan found that only 6 percent of the $11.8 trillion in tax cuts he proposes would go to the bottom 20 percent, while over a third of the total would go just to the top 1 percent of taxpayers.
Donald Trump has been all over the place on tax policy during his career, proposing at one time to impose a heavy tax on wealthy individuals and later proposing massive tax cuts for those same individuals. Early in the campaign, Trump indicated that he would raise taxes on the well-off, but his tax reform plan would likely lower taxes for the rich (including himself). According to a CTJ analysis, his plan would cost an astounding $12 trillion in revenue over the next ten years, with a majority of the tax breaks going to just the richest 5 percent of taxpayers.
Last year Citizens for Tax Justice (CTJ) published