Final Estimates on Cost and Distribution of 1996 Dole Plan

August 26, 1996 12:47 PM | | Bookmark and Share

For Immediate Release,
Monday, August 26, 1996


Citizens for Tax Justice today released final estimates of the cost and distribution of GOP presidential candidate Bob Dole’s 1996 campaign tax plan. The analysis finds that the Dole plan would add $132 billion a year to the federal budget deficit when fully phased in (in 1996 dollars). By comparison, the deficit for fiscal 1996 is estimated to be about $120 billion.

    CTJ’s analysis also found that:

  • The richest one percent of all families would save an average of $29,000 a year in taxes under the Dole plan (and would get 27% of the total tax cuts).
  • In contrast, the typical taxpayer would get a tax reduction of only $330. That’s far less than the reductions in federal programs necessary to offset the cost of the tax-cut plan, which would average about $1,100 per family.
  • 8.9 million low- and moderate-income working families would face tax increases averaging $270 each under the Dole plan, due to its proposed reductions in the earned-income tax credit.
  • Three-quarters of the proposed Dole tax cuts would go to the best-off 20% of all families.
  • The bottom three-fifths of all families would get less than 7% of Dole’s total proposed tax cuts.

 

CTJ analyzed the Dole plan using the Institute on Taxation & Economic Policy’s Microsimulation Tax Model. The ITEP model is similar in scope and methodology to computer tax models used by the congressional Joint Committee on Taxation and the U.S. Treasury Department. For purposes of the analysis, the term “families” encompasses all taxpaying units, including married couples, single parents and individuals.

CTJ’s analysis includes: Dole’s proposed 15% across-the-board reduction in personal income tax rates, his proposed capital gains tax reduction (to a maximum rate of 14%), his proposed reduction in taxation of Social Security benefits at higher income levels (back to pre-1993 rules), his proposed expansion of Individual Retirement Accounts (including education accounts), his proposed reductions in the earned-income tax credit for low- and moderate-income working families (patterned after the congressional proposal vetoed last year) and Dole’s proposed $500-per-child credit. The last item is phased out between $75,000 and $110,000 in adjusted gross income, and according to the Dole campaign will generally be unavailable to low- and moderate-income working families receiving the earned-income tax credit (contrary to a previous Dole campaign assertion that the credit would be for “low- and middle-income families”).

CTJ’s final estimates of the cost and distribution of the Dole plan is slightly different from preliminary estimates released on August 5 because of subsequent revelations by the Dole campaign about the earned-income tax credit reductions and limits on the per-child credit.

CTJ’s estimated cost of the Dole plan does not include a $25-40 billion a year spending proposal that would allow taxpayers to designate that up to $250 of their taxes ($500 for couples) be sent to a qualifying charitable organization or organizations. The Dole campaign has not included the cost of this spending proposal in its budget figures.

 


Detailed Tables on the 1996 Dole Tax Plan


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Statement in Support of Legislation to Curb Tax Subsidies for Exporting Jobs

July 23, 1996 04:37 PM | | Bookmark and Share

July 23, 1996


Citizens for Tax Justice strongly supports legislation to limit current federal tax deferrals that subsidize the export of American jobs. Such reform legislation is embodied in S. 1355, Senator Byron Dorgan’s “American Jobs and Manufacturing Preservation Act.” Similar legislation has been approved by the House of Representative in the past. We urge the full Congress to pass S. 1355 and send it to the President to sign.

Tax Breaks for Exporting Jobs Should Be Eliminated–We Shouldn’t Pay Our Companies to Make Goods for the American Market in Foreign Countries

In its 1990 annual report, the Hewlett-Packard company noted: “As a result of certain employment and capital investment actions undertaken by the company, income from manufacturing activities in certain countries is subject to reduced tax rates, and in some cases is wholly exempt from taxes, for years through 2002.” In fact, said Hewlett-Packard’s report, “the income tax benefits attributable to the tax status of these subsidiaries are estimated to be $116 million, $88 million and $57 million for 1990, 1989 and 1988, respectively.”

This is not an isolated instance. An examination of 1990 corporate annual reports that we undertook a few years ago provided the following additional examples:(1)

  • Baxter International noted that it has “manufacturing operations outside the U.S. which benefit from reductions in local tax rates under tax incentives that will continue at least through 1997.” Baxter said that its tax savings from these (and its Puerto Rican) operations totaled $200 million from 1988 to 1990.(2)
  • Pfizer reported that the “[e]ffects of partially tax-exempt operations in Puerto Rico and reduced rates in Ireland” amounted to $125 million in tax savings in 1990, $106 million in 1989 and $95 million in 1988.
  • Schering-Plough said that it “has subsidiaries in Puerto Rico and Ireland that manufacture products for distribution to both domestic and foreign markets. These subsidiaries operate under tax exemption grants and other incentives that expire at various dates through 2018.”
  • Becton Dickinson reported $43 million in “tax reductions related to tax holidays in various countries” from 1988 to 1990.
  • Beckman noted: “Certain income of subsidiaries operating in Puerto Rico and Ireland is taxed at substantially lower income tax rates,” worth more than $7 million a year to the company over the past two years.
  • Abbott Laboratories pegged the value of “tax incentive grants related to subsidiaries in Puerto Rico and Ireland” at $82 million in 1990, $79 million in 1989 and $76 million in 1988.
  • Merck & Co. noted that “earnings from manufacturing operations in Ireland [were] exempt from Irish taxes. The tax exemption expired in 1990; thereafter, Irish earnings will be taxed at an incentive rate of 10%.”

In fact, under current law, American companies often are taxed considerably less if they move their manufacturing operations to an overseas “tax haven” such as Singapore, Ireland or Taiwan, and then import their products back into the United States for sale.

How we subsidize the export of American jobs

The tax incentive for exporting American jobs results from current tax rules that:

1. allow companies to “defer” indefinitely U.S. taxes on unrepatriated profits earned by their foreign subsidiaries; and

2. allow companies to use foreign tax credits generated by taxes paid to non-tax-haven countries to offset the U.S. tax otherwise due on repatriated profits earned in low- or no-tax foreign tax havens.

S. 1355 would end this wrong-headed subsidy

Why should the United States tax code give companies a tax incentive to establish jobs and plants in tax-haven countries, rather than keeping or expanding their plants and jobs in the United States? Why should our tax code make tax breaks a factor in decisions by American companies about where to make the products they sell in the United States?

Why indeed? We believe that this tax break for overseas plants should be ended. Profits earned by American-owned companies from sales in the United States should be taxed–whether the products are Made in the USA or abroad.

S. 1355 would end the current tax break for exporting jobs–by taxing profits on goods that are manufactured by American companies in foreign tax havens and imported back into the United States. It would achieve this result by (1) imposing current tax on the “imported property income” of foreign subsidiaries of U.S. corporations; and (2) adding a new separate foreign tax credit limitation for imported property income earned by U.S. companies, either directly or through foreign subsidiaries.(3)

Legislation identical to S. 1355 was passed by the House in 1987. Unfortunately, at that time the reform provision was dropped in conference at the insistence of the Reagan administration.

Spurious arguments against curbing subsidies for exporting jobs

Of course, Congress has heard loud complaints from lobbyists for companies that benefit from the current tax breaks for exporting jobs. Some have apparently argued that their companies will be at a competitive disadvantage in foreign markets if this legislation were approved. But since the bill applies only to sales in U.S. markets, that argument makes no sense.

Lobbyists also have asserted that if American multinationals have to pay U.S. taxes on their profits from U.S. sales of foreign-made goods, they might be disadvantaged compared to foreign-owned companies selling products in the United States. Perhaps. But as the House concluded in 1987, it would be far better “to place U.S.-owned foreign enterprises who produce for the U.S. market on a par with similar or competing U.S. enterprises” rather than worrying about “placing them on a par with purely foreign enterprises.”(4)

Finally, lobbyists have made the spurious point that overall, foreign affiliates of U.S. companies have a negative trade balance with the United States, that is, they move more goods and services out of the United States than they export back in. To which, one might answer, so what?

After all, S. 1355 does not deal with all foreign affiliates of U.S. companies. Rather, it deals only with U.S.-controlled foreign subsidiaries that produce goods for the American market in tax-haven countries.(5) When U.S. companies shift what would otherwise be domestic production to these foreign subsidiaries it most certainly does not improve the U.S. trade balance; it hurts it.(6)

Conclusion

American companies may move jobs and plants to foreign locations in order to make goods for the U.S. market for many reasons–such as low wages or lack of regulation–that the tax code can do little about. But we should not provide an additional inducement for such American-job-losing moves through our income tax policy.

American multinationals should pay income taxes on their U.S.-related profits from foreign production. Such income should not be more favorably treated by our tax code than profits from producing goods here in the United States. We urge Congress to approve the provisions of S. 1355.

1. Several of the companies mentioned here apparently have been lobbying hard against S. 1355.

2. Many companies do not separate the tax savings from their Puerto Rican and foreign tax-haven activities in their annual reports.

3. “Imported property income means income . . . derived in connection with manufacturing, producing, growing, or extracting imported property; the sale, exchange, or other disposition of imported property; or the lease, rental, or licensing of imported property. For the purpose of the foreign tax credit limitation, income that is both imported property income and U.S. source income is treated as U.S. source income. Foreign taxes on that U.S. source imported property income are eligible for crediting against the U.S. tax on foreign source import[ed] property income. Imported property does not include any foreign oil and gas extraction income or any foreign oil-related income.

“The bill defines ‘imported property’ as property which is imported into the United States by the controlled foreign corporation or a related person.” House Committee on Ways and Means, “Report on Title X of the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1987,” in House Committee on the Budget, Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1987, House Rpt. 100-391, 100th Cong., 1st Sess., Oct. 26, 1987, pp. 1103-04.

4. Id.

5 Companies that manufacture abroad in non-tax-haven countries generally would not be affected by the bill, since they still will get foreign tax credits for the foreign taxes they pay.

6. Foreign affiliates of U.S. companies that produce goods for foreign markets–not addressed by Senator Dorgan’s bill–may well have a negative trade balance with the United States, insofar as they transfer property from their domestic parent to be used in overseas manufacturing. But it would obviously be far better for the U.S. trade balance–and for American jobs–if those final products were manufactured completely in the United States and exported abroad, rather than having much of the manufacturing process occur overseas. To assert that foreign manufacturing operations by American companies helps the U.S. trade balance is to play games with statistics.

For example, suppose an American company was making $100 million in export goods in the U.S. for foreign markets. Now, suppose it moves the assembly portion of that manufacturing process overseas, where half the value of the final products is produced. At this point, instead of $100 million in exports, there are only $50 million. America has thus lost exports and jobs–even though the foreign affiliate itself has a negative trade balance with the United States. For better or worse, however, S. 1355, does not address this situation.



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Flat Tax Quotes

May 12, 1996 02:35 PM | | Bookmark and Share

Kemp, The Flat Tax and Employer Provided Health Care

Former housing secretary Jack Kemp agreed that the flat tax [which taxes fringe benefits] might lead to a decrease in employer-funded health care. “But people would be able to purchase their own health insurance,” he told “Face the Nation.” “What we’ve got to get rid of is third-party payments—government, business or union.”

— The Washington Post Jan. 22, 1996, A6


Conservative Economists Tell All

 

A group of conservative Republican economists has charged that House Majority Leader Dick Armey’s [flat tax] would result in “significantly higher taxes” for the middle class.

Echoing Democratic complaints about the scheme, the economic consulting firm of Lehrman, Bell, Mueller and Cannon argues that by eliminating many popular deductions, the plan will end up increasing federal taxes for most workers.

In a letter to key Republicans, they pose the semi-rhetorical question, “Does the Republican Party want to take into 1996 a flat tax proposal that raises taxes on most American workers and worsens the middle-class squeeze?”

The team’s party credentials are solid. Lehrman ran for governor of New York and Bell ran for Senator from New Jersey, both as Republicans.

–The American Legion magazine, December 1995, p. 14


Dick Armey, the Flat Tax’s Current Champion In Congress

Majority Leader Dick Armey seeks to undo virtually every governmental accomplishment for working people, Democrat and Republican, of the past 60 years.

Armey is a shiny-eyed ideologue who wants freer immigration plus an end to minimum-wage laws, abolition of the earned-income tax credit for the working poor, no taxes on dividends or capital gains, abolition of environmental regulations and an end to both the current Medicare system and employer-paid health insurance.

Armey is another of these latter-day Ronald Reagans who have neither Reagan’s charm nor Reagan’s intellect.

 

Lars-Erik Nelson

— NEW YORK NEWSDAY, July 9, 1995

 


Statements of Robert Hall and Alvin Rabushka — the originators of the Flat Tax, including their distributional table.

 


Golden Oldy Tax Quotes


A Philosophy

 

“‘Tis true that governments cannot be supported without great charge, and it is fit everyone who enjoys a share of protection should pay out of his estate his proportion of the maintenance of it.”

 

John Locke

 


Perfection Sought

 

“Whoever hopes a faultless tax to see, hopes what ne’er was, is not, and ne’er shall be.”

 

Alexander Pope

 


The Original United States Chamber of Commerce

 

“Why shouldn’t the American people take half my money from me? I took all of it from them.”

 

Edward Albert Filene (1869-1937)

Filene (of Boston’s Filene’s Department Stores) founded the U.S. Chamber of Commerce to encourage businesses to contribute to the welfare of their communities. He eventually quit the organization, disappointed that it had become a bastion of right-wing conservatism and an anti-tax lobby.


Mr. Dickens on Taxes and Herbs

 

“It was as true . . . as turnips is. It was as true . . . as taxes is. And nothing’s truer than them.”

 

Charles Dickens — DAVID COPPERFIELD (1849-1850), CH. 21


The Father of Modern Capitalist Thought on Progressive Taxation

 

“The subjects of every state ought to contribute toward the support of the government, as nearly as possible, in proportion to their respective abilities; that is, in proportion to the revenue which they respectively enjoy under the protection of the state ….[As Henry Home (Lord Kames) has written, a goal of taxation should be to] ‘remedy inequality of riches as much as possible, by relieving the poor and burdening the rich.'”

 

Adam Smith

— AN INQUIRY INTO THE NATURE AND CAUSES OF THE WEALTH OF NATIONS (1776)


An American View

 

“Idleness and pride tax with a heavier hand than kings and parliaments. If we can get rid of the former, we may easily bear the latter.”

 

Benjamin Franklin

— LETTER ON THE STAMP ACT (July 11, 1765)


A Word for the IRS

 

“The art of taxation consists in so plucking the goose as to get the most feathers with the least hissing.”

 

Jean Baptiste Colbert Controller General of Finances for Louis XIV


By Definition

“EXCISE — A hateful tax levied on commodities, and adjudged not by the common judges of property, but wretches hired by those to whom excise is paid.”

 

Samual Johnson

— DICTIONARY (1755)


National Sales Tax Quotes


Senator Lugar explains his proposed national sales tax

 

“I admit that if the point of taxation is progressivity or so-called fairness and redistribution, then my plan will not be your cup of tea.”

 

Senator Richard Lugar (R-Ind.)

— Tax Notes, July 31, 1995, p. 522.


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The Hidden Entitlements, Second Edition

May 2, 1996 04:45 PM | | Bookmark and Share

The Hidden Entitlements, released in May of 1996, describes the tax loopholes for the rich and corporations that are hidden in the tax code. Each of the entitlement programs contributing to the $455 billion in tax loopholes for 1996 is described in detail, with detailed cost estimates for the next seven years for each program.


Read the Full Report

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Detailed tables on the effects of the Flat Tax on Texans

March 8, 1996 02:26 PM | | Bookmark and Share


    NOTES:

  • Current law figures include personal and corporate income taxes, estate & gift taxes and taxes on fiduciaries, all of which would be repealed under the flat tax. Negative current personal income tax in the lowest income group under current law reflects the earned-income tax credit, which would be repealed under the flat tax legislation.
  • The revenue-neutral plans are shown with and without transition rules. In fact, there would undoubtably be either substantial transition rules (none are proposed in the flat-tax bill) or substantial corporate merger and leasing activities to reach the same result.
  • The reduced wage-tax exemptions reflected in the two “smaller exemption” plans allow $5,100 per taxpayer and $2,400 per dependent, rather than the $10,700 per taxpayer and $5,000 per dependent proposed in the revenue-losing flat tax bill.
  • Proposed flat taxes on fringe benefits (collected from public, private and non-profit employers) are assigned to workers. Other “business” taxes under the transition-free flat tax plan are based on optimistic estimates by the U.S. Treasury. Likely transition rules would reduce business tax revenues very substantially.

Source: Citizens for Tax Justice, March 8, 1996


Average Federal Income Taxes on Texans Under Current Law & Armey-Forbes Flat Tax

REVENUE-LOSING PROPOSALS:


REVENUE-NEUTRAL SCENARIOS

NOTES: Current law figures include personal and corporate income taxes, estate & gift taxes and taxes on fiduciaries, all of which would be repealed under the flat tax. Negative current personal income tax in the lowest income group under current law reflects the earned-income tax credit, which would be repealed under the flat tax legislation. Figures for the flat tax as proposed, with a two-year 20% tax rate and later a 17% tax rate, assume no transition rules and no steps by corporations to avoid taxes by merging with companies with negative taxable incomes (e.g., banks). Changes for the revenue-losing versions of the flat tax (*) are compared to current law raising equivalently lower revenues. The revenue-neutral plans are shown with and without transition rules. In fact, there would undoubtably be either substantial transition rules (none are proposed in the flat tax bill) or substantial corporate merger and leasing activities to reach the same result. The reduced wage-tax exemptions reflected the two “smaller exemptions” plans allow $5,100 per taxpayer and $2,400 per dependent, rather than the $10,700 per taxpayer and $5,000 per dependent proposed in the revenue-losing flat tax legislation. Proposed flat taxes on fringe benefits (collected from public, private and non-profit employers) are assigned to workers. Other “business” taxes under the transition-free flat tax plan are based on optimistic estimates by the U.S. Treasury. “Generous” transition rules, as suggested by the Kemp Commission, would reduce the business tax revenues very substantially. All tax figures are at 1996 levels, and are rounded to the nearest ten dollars. Source: Citizens for Tax Justice, March 8, 1996


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Dick Armey & Steve Forbes’s Plot to Raise Taxes on Most Texans

March 8, 1996 02:25 PM | | Bookmark and Share

Flat tax legislation sponsored by Rep. Dick Armey (R-Tex.) and endorsed by presidential candidate Malcolm S. “Steve” Forbes, Jr. would raise taxes on the vast majority of Texas families, while showering enormous tax cuts on very wealthy people such as Forbes himself.

Armey’s flat tax bill calls for a 20% tax on wages, fringe benefits and self-employment earnings, with exemptions for interest, dividends and capital gains. The flat tax rate is supposed to fall to 17% after two years–the figure usually cited by Forbes–but, in fact, the rate would actually have to be considerably higher than the proposed 20% to avoid enormous additions to the federal budget deficit.

A computer microsimulation analysis of the effects of the Armey-Forbes flat tax plan on Texans by Citizens for Tax Justice finds that under the plan at its proposed 20% tax rate:

 

  • Federal revenues would plummet by at least $49 billion a year.
  • Despite these huge revenue losses, the vast majority of Texans–all income groups but the top 4.6% of Texas families–would pay higher federal taxes.
  • In contrast, the very best-off Texans–the 1.1% making more than $200,000 a year–would see their federal taxes cut in half.

CTJ also found that if the flat tax rate is increased to avoid revenue losses:

  • Federal taxes would increase on all Texas income groups except the best off 1.1%.
  • Texans in the $20,000 to $75,000 income ranges would face tax increases of 24% to 70%. That would mean $900 to $1,900 a year in higher federal taxes for these families.

(A February CTJ analysis found that under his flat tax plan, Steve Forbes personally would save a total of $1.9 billion over the rest of his lifetime.)

“Because the flat tax cuts taxes so drastically on super-rich people like Steve Forbes, it inevitably means much higher burdens on everyone else,” noted CTJ director Robert S. McIntyre. “Our new analysis quantifies the size of those increased burdens on residents of Texas.”

 

Flat Tax Texas Distributional Table

*As proposed for the first two years in the flat tax bill as introduced.
**With exemptions as proposed and no transition rules.
+Compared to federal personal and corporate income taxes and other taxes repealed by the flat tax.
++ No federal income, etc. tax under current law in this group.

Citizens for Tax Justice, March 8, 1996.

 

 

 

Description of the Armey-Forbes Flat Tax Proposal

Armey and Forbes have proposed to repeal the federal personal income tax, the corporate income tax and the estate tax, and replace them with a 20% flat tax (scheduled to drop to 17% after two years) on wages, pensions and self-employment income. (Forbes typically talks only about the 17% eventual rate, but a spokesman for his campaign told Fortune, Feb. 5, that his flat tax plan “would duplicate” the Armey plan.)

The new flat tax would also be imposed on employer-paid fringe benefits, including benefits paid by state and local governments and non-profit organizations. Individuals would no longer be taxed on their interest, dividends, capital gains and other “unearned” income. All itemized deductions, for state and local taxes, mortgage interest, charitable donations and so forth would be repealed, as would all federal tax credits.

Although the flat tax offers large exemptions against the wage portion of its tax–$10,700 per taxpayer and $5,000 per dependent in 1996 dollars–it taxes fringe benefits such as health insurance and employer-paid social security taxes with no exemptions. As a result, lower-income working families that now owe no federal income tax will pay substantial taxes under the flat tax.

Businesses would file tax returns similar to those currently filed, except that: interest and dividends income would be exempt from taxation; capital expenditures would be deducted immediately rather than depreciated over time; interest paid would no longer be deductible; and 100% of meals and entertainment outlays (rather than only 50% under current law) could be deducted.

In the aggregate, these changes in corporate taxation would eventually appear to wipe out most taxes on corporations. Flat tax proponents, however, claim their plan would raise large amounts from business. That claim is based on the absurd notion that companies that have invested heavily in recent years would be subject to huge tax penalties on their past investments (due to loss of depreciation deductions).

The Armey-Forbes flat tax plan’s cavalier attitude about business taxation has been sharply criticized as unfair and irrational. Indeed, the almost random effects on different businesses from the lack of “transition rules” could cause huge economic dislocations and a sharp downturn in the economy. That is why even the otherwise pro-flat tax Kemp Commission report called for “generous” transition rules as part of any tax overhaul.

 

Plan as proposed promises huge deficits, economic dislocations

As proposed, the flat tax would add an estimated $49 billion to the annual federal budget deficit at its proposed 20% tax rate, with the loss ballooning to $156 billion a year at the eventual 17% tax rate. These “static” estimates almost certainly vastly understate the likely revenue losses, however. Any practical flat-tax plan would undoubtably provide substantial transition rules, and there would also be a wave of corporate merging and leasing activities to avoid the new flat tax.

Huge increases in the budget deficit would drive up interest rates, and throw the economy into recession. Alternatively, were the federal government to try to offset these huge deficit increases through program reductions, that would require cuts in federal programs even larger than those contemplated in last year’s congressional budget plan. Under that legislation, not only were Medicare and Medicaid under assault, but state and local government were expected to lose huge amounts in federal aid.

 

Alternative Scenarios Show Similar Results

Besides comparing the revenue-losing Armey-Forbes flat tax plan as proposed to current law, CTJ also looked at alternative “revenue-neutral” flat tax scenarios, including ones that assume either explicit transition rules to avoid driving large numbers of companies out of business or substantial corporate merger and leasing transactions that achieve the same result. Under these more likely scenarios, CTJ found that the flat tax could potentially break even at a 24.6% tax rate with the wage-tax exemptions proposed in the Armey bill. CTJ also found that if the wage-tax exemptions were reduced to $5,100 per taxpayer and $2,400 per dependent, the plan could potentially break even at a 19.3% rate.

No matter which alternative scenario is chosen, most Texans would pay much higher taxes under the flat tax, with average tax increases in the $30,000 to $100,000 income groups ranging from $900 a year to more than $3,000 annually.

“There’s no free lunch here,” noted McIntyre. “If the flat tax is designed to cut taxes by $150 billion or $200 billion a year, that will mean doubling the deficit or huge reductions in federal services, coupled with higher taxes on most families, higher interest rates and, most likely, a deep recession. If the flat tax rate is increased or its exemptions are lowered to try to break even, then almost everyone’s taxes except the very rich’s must go up even more.”

Source:

CTJ’s analysis of the Armey-Forbes flat tax was computed using the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy’s Microsimulation Tax Model, a tax simulation model similar in design and data sources to those used by the Treasury Department and the congressional Joint Committee on Taxation, but also equipped to analyze the effects of tax changes on a state-by-state basis.


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Detailed tables on the effects of the Flat Tax on New Yorkers

March 5, 1996 02:29 PM | | Bookmark and Share


More Forbes

    NOTES:

  • Current law figures include personal and corporate income taxes, estate & gift taxes and taxes on fiduciaries, all of which would be repealed under the flat tax. Negative current personal income tax in the lowest income group under current law reflects the earned-income tax credit, which would be repealed under the flat tax legislation.
  • The revenue-neutral plans are shown with and without transition rules. In fact, there would undoubtably be either substantial transition rules (none are proposed in the flat-tax bill) or substantial corporate merger and leasing activities to reach the same result.
  • The reduced wage-tax exemptions reflected in the two “smaller exemption” plans allow $5,100 per taxpayer and $2,400 per dependent, rather than the $10,700 per taxpayer and $5,000 per dependent proposed in the revenue-losing flat tax bill.
  • Proposed flat taxes on fringe benefits (collected from public, private and non-profit employers) are assigned to workers. Other “business” taxes under the transition-free flat tax plan are based on optimistic estimates by the U.S. Treasury. Likely transition rules would reduce business tax revenues very substantially.

Source: Citizens for Tax Justice, March 5, 1996


Average Federal Income Taxes on New Yorkers Under Current Law & Armey-Shelby-Forbes Flat Tax

REVENUE-LOSING PROPOSALS:


REVENUE-NEUTRAL SCENARIOS

NOTES: Current law figures include personal and corporate income taxes, estate & gift taxes and taxes on fiduciaries, all of which would be repealed under the flat tax. Negative current personal income tax in the lowest income group under current law reflects the earned-income tax credit, which would be repealed under the flat tax legislation. Figures for the flat tax as proposed, with a two-year 20% tax rate and later a 17% tax rate, assume no transition rules and no steps by corporations to avoid taxes by merging with companies with negative taxable incomes (e.g., banks). Changes for the revenue-losing versions of the flat tax (*) are compared to current law raising equivalently lower revenues. The revenue-neutral plans are shown with and without transition rules. In fact, there would undoubtably be either substantial transition rules (none are proposed in the flat tax bill) or substantial corporate merger and leasing activities to reach the same result. The reduced wage-tax exemptions reflected the two “smaller exemptions” plans allow $5,100 per taxpayer and $2,400 per dependent, rather than the $10,700 per taxpayer and $5,000 per dependent proposed in the revenue-losing flat tax legislation. Proposed flat taxes on fringe benefits (collected from public, private and non-profit employers) are assigned to workers. Other “business” taxes under the transition-free flat tax plan are based on optimistic estimates by the U.S. Treasury. “Generous” transition rules, as suggested by the Kemp Commission, would reduce the business tax revenues very substantially. All tax figures are at 1996 levels, and are rounded to the nearest ten dollars. Source: Citizens for Tax Justice, March 5, 1996


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Most New Yorkers Would Be Hit Hard by “Flat Tax”

March 5, 1996 02:28 PM | | Bookmark and Share

Most New Yorkers would pay considerably higher federal taxes under “flat tax” legislation introduced by Rep. Richard Armey (R-Tex.) and Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.), and endorsed by presidential candidate Malcolm S. “Steve” Forbes, Jr. These tax increases would be compounded by either a huge increase in the federal budget deficit or sharp reductions in federal programs.

A computer microsimulation analysis of the effects of the Armey-Shelby-Forbes flat tax plan on New Yorkers by Citizens for Tax Justice finds that under the plan at its eventual 17% tax rate (the proposed rate is 20% for the first two years):

 

  • Federal revenues would plummet by at least $156 billion a year–an amount that would double the current federal budget deficit.
  • Despite these huge revenue losses, the vast majority of New Yorkers–all income groups but the top 11% of New York families–would pay higher federal taxes.
  • In contrast, the very best-off New Yorkers–the 1.7% making more than $200,000 a year–would see their federal taxes cut by more than half.
  • If the flat tax rate is increased to avoid revenue losses, federal taxes would increase on all New York income groups except the best off 1.7%. Typical tax increases on New Yorkers in the $30,000 to $75,000 income ranges would be $1,300 to $2,500 annually.

“Because the flat tax cuts taxes so drastically on super-rich people like Steve Forbes, it inevitably means much higher burdens on everyone else,” noted CTJ director Robert S. McIntyre. “Our new analysis quantifies the size of those increased burdens on residents of New York.”

 

Repeal of itemized deductions especially hurts New Yorkers

The projected tax increases on middle-income New Yorkers under the flat tax are generally 20% to 40% larger than the estimated nation-wide average tax hikes for non-New York families with similar incomes. This reflects in large part the relatively heavy reliance by New Yorkers on itemized deductions, which the flat tax would repeal. New York’s total use of itemized deductions is almost 50% above the national average. On average, about 31% of all New York families itemize deductions, compared to 26% nationwide. In addition, for those who do itemize, New Yorkers’ average deductions are 23% higher than the national average.

 

Forbes Flat Tax NY Distributional Table

Description of the Armey-Shelby-Forbes Flat Tax Proposal

Armey, Shelby and Forbes have proposed to repeal the federal personal income tax, the corporate income tax and the estate tax, and replace them with a 20% flat tax (scheduled to drop to 17% after two years) on wages, pensions and self-employment income. (Forbes typically talks only about the 17% eventual rate, but a spokesman for his campaign told Fortune, Feb. 5, that his flat tax plan “would duplicate” the Armey-Shelby plan.)

The new flat tax would also be imposed on employer-paid fringe benefits, including benefits paid by state and local governments and non-profit organizations. Individuals would no longer be taxed on their interest, dividends, capital gains and other “unearned” income. All itemized deductions, for state and local taxes, mortgage interest, charitable donations and so forth would be repealed, as would all federal tax credits.

Although the flat tax offers large exemptions against the wage portion of its tax–$10,700 per taxpayer and $5,000 per dependent in 1996 dollars–it taxes fringe benefits such as health insurance and employer-paid social security taxes with no exemptions. As a result, lower-income working families that now owe no federal income tax will pay substantial taxes under the flat tax. Businesses would file tax returns similar to those currently filed, except that: interest and dividends income would be exempt from taxation; capital expenditures would be deducted immediately rather than depreciated over time; interest paid would no longer be deductible; and 100% of meals and entertainment outlays (rather than only 50% under current law) could be deducted.

In the aggregate, these changes in corporate taxation would eventually appear to wipe out most taxes on corporations. Flat tax proponents, however, claim their plan would raise large amounts from business. That claim is based on the absurd notion that companies that have invested heavily in recent years would be subject to huge tax penalties on their past investments (due to loss of depreciation deductions).

The Armey-Shelby-Forbes flat tax plan’s cavalier attitude about business taxation has been sharply criticized as unfair and irrational. Indeed, the almost random effects on different businesses from the lack of “transition rules” could cause huge economic dislocations and a sharp downturn in the economy. That is why even the otherwise pro-flat tax Kemp Commission report called for “generous” transition rules as part of any tax overhaul.

 

Plan as proposed promises huge deficits, economic dislocations

As proposed, the flat tax would add an estimated $49 billion to the annual federal budget deficit at its proposed 20% tax rate, with the loss ballooning to $156 billion a year at the eventual 17% tax rate. These “static” estimates almost certainly vastly understate the likely revenue losses, however. Any practical flat-tax plan would undoubtably provide substantial transition rules, and there would also be a wave of corporate merging and leasing activities to avoid the new flat tax.

Huge increases in the budget deficit would drive up interest rates, and throw the economy into recession. Alternatively, were the federal government to try to offset these huge deficit increases through program reductions, that would require cuts in federal programs even larger than those contemplated in last year’s congressional budget plan. Under that legislation, not only were Medicare and Medicaid under assault, but New York state and local government were expected to lose $40 billion in aid over seven years.

 

Alternative Scenarios Show Similar Results

Besides comparing the revenue-losing Armey-Shelby-Forbes flat tax plan as proposed to current law, CTJ also looked at alternative “revenue-neutral” flat tax scenarios, including ones that assume either explicit transition rules to avoid driving large numbers of companies out of business or substantial corporate merger and leasing transactions that achieve the same result. Under these more likely scenarios, CTJ found that the flat tax could potentially break even at a 24.6% tax rate with the wage-tax exemptions proposed in the Armey-Shelby bill. CTJ also found that if the wage-tax exemptions were reduced to $5,100 per taxpayer and $2,400 per dependent, the plan could potentially break even at a 19.3% rate.

No matter which alternative scenario is chosen, most New Yorkers would pay much higher taxes under the flat tax, with average tax increases in the $30,000 to $100,000 income groups ranging from $1,000 a year to almost $4,000 annually.

“There’s no free lunch here,” noted McIntyre. “If the flat tax is designed to cut taxes by $150 billion or more, that will mean doubling the deficit or huge reductions in federal services, coupled with higher taxes on most families, higher interest rates and, most likely, a deep recession. If the flat tax rate is increased or its exemptions are lowered to try to break even, then almost everyone’s taxes except the very rich’s must go up even more.”

 

State Revenues in Jeopardy, Too

CTJ also pointed out that were the federal government to repeal its income taxes in favor of a flat tax, then states would find it difficult or impossible to administer their own income taxes. “This would be a particular problem for states like New York that rely heavily on income taxes to pay for state services,” McIntyre noted.

Source:

CTJ’s analysis of the Armey-Shelby-Forbes flat tax was computed using the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy’s Microsimulation Tax Model, a tax simulation model similar in design and data sources to those used by the Treasury Department and the congressional Joint Committee on Taxation, but also equipped to analyze the effects of tax changes on a state-by-state basis.

 

Detailed Tables on the Effects of the Flat Tax on New Yorkers.


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Armey Flat Tax Distributional Tables

February 6, 1996 02:35 PM | | Bookmark and Share

The flat tax plan of House Majority Leader Richard K. Armey (R-Tex) calls for a tax rate of 20% for the first two years and a 17% rate in subsequent years. At both rates the tax raises substantially less revenue than the taxes it replaces and targets the tax cuts to the wealthiest of Americans. The taxes being replaced: the personal income tax, the corporate income tax and the estate tax ,currently raise about $750 billion. About $600 billion of that is from the personal income tax.


At a a rate of 20.8% and Armey’s proposed exemptions, the flat tax would raise as much revenue as the taxes it replaces. Alternatively, at the proposed 17% rate, the exemptions could be reduced to make the plan revenue neutral.Congressman Armey has said that he would be willing to amend his plan to be revenue neutral. Such changes would cause the tax increase to substantially larger for middle-income families.


NOTE: Rep. Richard Armey proposes a 20% flat tax rate for 1996 and 1997 and a 17% rate thereafter. Source: All data are from the U.S. Treasury, Dec. 20, 1995. Some additional calculations by Citizens for Tax Justice, January 18, 1996. Figures substantially understate revenue losses and understated required tax rate or exemption reductions necessary to avoid revenue losses because they assume no transition rules.


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Armey Flat Tax, Table of Examples

February 6, 1996 02:33 PM | | Bookmark and Share

Armey Flat Tax Examples

Source: Break-even rates and exemptions from U.S. Treasury, “An Analysis of the New Armey-Shelby Flat Tax Proposal,” Dec. 1995. Calculations by Citizens for Tax Justice, Feb. 1996.

NOTE: Taxable fringe benefits under the flat tax include employer-paid health insurance, the employer share of Social Security and Medicare taxes, and miscellaneous other non-pension fringe benefits. As proposed, the Armey exemptions would be $10,700 per taxpayer plus $5,000 per child. To break even at a 17% tax rate, Treasury says that exemptions would have to be reduced to $5,100 per taxpayer and $2,400 per child.


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